THE current infighting within Umno in Malacca will benefit Pakatan Harapan (PH), which could emerge winners in the imminent state polls, analysts said.

They said the conflict between its two former chief ministers, Sulaiman Md Ali and Idris Haron, will register at the ballot box among voters who may just swing to PH.

They told The Malaysian Insight that neither Barisan Nasional (BN) nor Perikatan Nasional (PN) will win in a three-cornered contest if they fail to come to an electoral understanding ahead of the election.

They agreed the coming polls would be a snapshot of what to expect from voters at the next general election.

The Malacca state assembly was dissolved after four assemblymen announced they had lost confidence in Sulaiman on Monday.

Speaker Abd Rauf Yusoh then announced the dissolution saying Sulaiman had advised the governor to dissolve the state assembly after losing the majority.

Elections must be held within 60 days of the dissolution of the state assembly.

The four who cited loss of confidence in the chief minister were Idris Haron (Sg Udang), Nor Azman Hassan (Pantai Kundor), Noor Effandi Ahmad (Telok Mas) and Norhizam Hassan Baktee (Pengkalan Batu). 

Following the move, Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan said Idris had automatically lost his membership for going against the party.

Prof James Chin of the Asian Studies at the Tasmania University in Australia said the state election will also provide a chance for both Umno and Bersatu to stamp their authority and assert who has the majority support among Malay voters.

“Good for PH and I think they have a chance to increase their seats. Bad for Umno and Bersatu. We will see who is more dominant; is it Umno or Bersatu that can win the Malay votes?

“It is good that we have an election. We cannot allow politicians to form governments according to the numbers of elected representatives they can get, we must let the people decide,” Chin said.

Dr Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs mirrored James’ view but said that neither coalition would get bigger majorities in the state legislative assembly.

“I think the majority difference will be one or two only. It would not be big. Surely the current fight will benefit PH,” he added.

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Prof Ahmad Marthada Mohamed contends PH has the upper hand in the state election.

“Also, as long as BN and PN can’t find common ground, it is for PH to take,” Ahmad said.

It was reported yesterday that Malacca PN was ready to hold talks with the state Umno body to avoid three-cornered fights in the upcoming state elections.

Its chairman, Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen, said that Bersatu, together with PAS and Gerakan, had made a stand that there would be no clashes in seizing the state seats.

“We are open if Malacca Umno wants to negotiate with the state PN to avoid three-cornered fights. If Umno is ready then we will think of the next course of action.

“As long as we do not know Umno’s decision, we will not go into details. Talks on seat distribution are too far off. We are waiting for them to make a decision,” he said at a press conference in Ayer Keroh.

However, responding to the offer, Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan said the party had yet to decide whether to work with other parties or contest independently in the Malacca election.

Mohamad, who is also Umno’s election director, said what is important now is that the party must be prepared to face any eventuality in the polls.

“Let’s not expect outside help for us to win. We must build our own internal strength,” he told reporters yesterday.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomudin Bakar, meanwhile, predicted a tough road for PH although, on paper, the opposition coalition has better chances.

“There are so many factors that caused their win in the 14th general election that cannot be used in the state election. It will not be that easy for PH.

“At the moment, the mood of the people is not good. They are fed up with politicians who prefer to prioritise their positions rather than work for the people,” Hisomudin said.

Precursor

Oh, meanwhile, said that the state election will provide a snapshot of how the public would react in the coming general election.

“It is somewhat predictive on how voters will vote because it is an election in west Malaysia. It is a precursor to the general election.”

James agreed, but said it could only be used as a snapshot as the situation may differ next year when the general election is held.

“Many will use the Malacca state election as a barometer for what the rest of the country feels about parties in general but the situation will be different next year.

“The election may be held after June and the political environment will change by that time.

“However, it still can be used as an indicator of how people feel at the present moment,” he added. – October 7, 2021.